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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

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Marie Diron (Oxford Economics, London, UK)

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Abstract

Forecasters commonly predict real gross domestic product growth from monthly indicators such as industrial production, retail sales and surveys, and therefore require an assessment of the reliability of such tools. While forecast errors related to model specification and unavailability of data in real time have been assessed, the impact of data revisions on forecast accuracy has seldom been evaluated, especially for the euro area. This paper proposes to evaluate the contributions of these three sources of forecast error using a set of data vintages for the euro area. The results show that gains in accuracy of forecasts achieved by using monthly data on actual activity rather than surveys or financial indicators are offset by the fact that the former set of monthly data is harder to forecast and less timely than the latter set. These results provide a benchmark which future research may build on as more vintage datasets become available. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1067
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 371-390
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:27:y:2008:i:5:p:371-390

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. Katja Drechsel & Laurent Maurin, 2008. "Flow on conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity," Working Paper Series 925, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Brien, Derry, 2008. "Now-casting Irish GDP," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/08, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Angelini, Elena & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2008. "Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator," ECARES Working Papers 2009_021, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Latvia's Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2008/05, Latvijas Banka. [Downloadable!]
  6. Olivier Darne, 2008. "Using business survey in industrial and services sector to nowcast GDP growth:The French case," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(32), pages 1-8. [Downloadable!]
  7. Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Documents de Travail 222, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box - publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Martin Schneider & Christian Ragacs, 2009. "Why did we fail to predict GDP during the last cycle? A breakdown of forecast errors for Austria," Working Papers 151, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  10. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Banco de España Working Papers 0807, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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