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Abstract

This paper introduces a new indicator of core inflation for New Zealand, estimated using a dynamic factor model and disaggregate price data. Using disaggregate price data we can directly compare the predictive performance of our core indicator with a wide range of other ‘core inflation’ measures estimated from disaggregate prices, such as the weighted median and the trimmed mean. Predictive performance is assessed relative to a centred 2 year moving average of past and future annual inflation outcomes. The 2 year centred moving average is used as an analytical approximation of the inflation target from the PTA, which requires the Reserve Bank to keep annual inflation between 1 and 3 per cent on average over the medium term. We find that our indicator produces relatively good estimates of this characterisation of core inflation when compared with estimates derived from a range of other models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series ULB Institutional Repository with number 2013/6407.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Publication status: Published in: International Journal of Central Banking (2007) v.3 n° 4,p.145-180
Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/6407

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
• E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
• E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References

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