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Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment

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Author Info
Amstad, Marlene
Fischer, Andreas M

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Abstract

The timely release of macroeconomic data imposes a distinct structure on the panel: the clustering and sequential ordering of real and nominal variables. We call this orderly release of economic data sequential information flow. The ordered panel generates a new class of restrictions that are helpful in interpreting the real-time estimates of monthly core inflation through the identification of turning points and structural shocks. After establishing the sought-after properties (of smoothness, stability, and forecasting) for core inflation, we turn to the discussion of real-time diagnosis for a low inflation environment. This is done in the context of weekly estimates of Swiss inflation. The intra-monthly estimates for core inflation find that it is worthwhile to update this measure at least twice a month.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4627.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4627

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Related research
Keywords: common factors; inflation; sequential information flow;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
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  4. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M, 2005. "Time-Varying Pass-Through from Import Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence from an Event Study with Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2005. "Shock identification of macroeconomic forecasts based on daily panels," Staff Reports 206, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Domenico Giannone & Troy D. Matheson, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 145-180, December. [Downloadable!]
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