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Are Weekly Inflation Forecasts Informative?

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  • Marlene Amstad
  • Andreas M. Fischer

Abstract

Are weekly inflation forecasts informative? Although several central banks review and discuss monetary policy issues on a bi-weekly basis, there have been no attempts by analysts to construct systematic estimates of core inflation that supports such a decision-making schedule. The timeliness of news releases are recognized to be an important information source in real-time estimation. We incorporate real-time information from macroeconomic releases and revisions into our weekly updates of monthly Swiss core inflation using a common factor procedure. The weekly estimates for Swiss core inflation show that it is worthwhile to update the forecast at least twice a month. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2008.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 71 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 237-252

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:71:y:2009:i:2:p:237-252

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Cited by:
  1. Boriss Siliverstovs & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2010. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," KOF Working papers 10-251, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
  3. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Do macroeconomic announcements move inflation forecasts?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 507-518.
  4. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter, 2009. "Real time underlying inflation gauges for monetary policymakers," Staff Reports 420, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Amstad, Marlene & Potter, Simon M. & Rich, Robert W., 2014. "The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG," Staff Reports 672, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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