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A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area

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Author Info
Cristadoro, Riccardo
Forni, Mario
Reichlin, Lucrezia
Veronese, Giovanni

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new core inflation indicator for the euro area, obtained by "cleaning" monthly price changes from short-run volatility, idiosyncratic, and measurement errors. We use a factor model to "project" monthly inflation on a large panel of time series. Exploiting multivariate information we obtain a satisfactory degree of smoothing without using backward looking moving averages, which induce a time delay in the signal. The indicator forecasts inflation and is a useful tool for policy makers. It outperforms other commonly used predictors at 6 months and longer horizons. It tracks past policy interventions of the ECB.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 539-60
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:37:y:2005:i:3:p:539-60

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2007. "Global Inflation," Kiel Working Papers 1337, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Large Datasets: Dynamic Factor Model versus Large-Scale BVARs," Working Papers 200816, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Domenico Giannone & Troy D. Matheson, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 145-180, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Veronese, Giovanni, 2006. "New EuroCOIN: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 5633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 200815, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Factor Models in Large Cross-Sections of Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 3285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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