Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared
AbstractThis study evaluates forecasting performance of a large-scale factor model developed in Siliverstovs and Kholodilin (2012) in a genuine ex ante forecasting exercise. We perform our forecast of GDP growth in Switzerland in real time using real-time data vintages collected at weekly frequency. This allows us to monitor how newly released economic and financial data influence our forecasts and hence capture prevailing tendencies in current course of economic development.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 12-302.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
inflation expectation formation; time-varying parameters; Bayesian methods; disagreement; media coverage; stochastic volatility.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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