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Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy

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  • Boriss Siliverstovs

Abstract

This study evaluates forecasting performance of a large-scale factor model developed in Siliverstovs and Kholodilin (2012) in a genuine ex ante forecasting exercise. We perform our forecast of GDP growth in Switzerland in real time using real-time data vintages collected at weekly frequency. This allows us to monitor how newly released economic and financial data influence our forecasts and hence capture prevailing tendencies in current course of economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012. "Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy," KOF Working papers 12-302, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-302
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-007216957
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-007216957
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Boriss Siliverstovs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2014. "The KOF Economic Barometer, Version 2014," KOF Working papers 14-353, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    4. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "New York FED Staff Nowcasts and Reality: What Can We Learn about the Future, the Present, and the Past?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, March.

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