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Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator

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Author Info
Domenico Giannone
Lucrezia Reichlin
Saverio Simonelli

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Abstract

This paper assesses the role of surveys for the early estimates of GDP in the euro area in a model-based automated procedures which exploits the timeliness of their release. The analysis is conducted using both an historical evaluation and a real time case study on the current conjuncture.

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File URL: http://www.ecares.org/index2.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_view&gid=77&Itemid=204
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares in its series ECARES Working Papers with number 2009_021.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2009_021

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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting; factor model; real time data; large data sets; survey.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Angelini, Elena & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2008. "Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Marie Diron, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth - an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box - publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Stephen Wright & Eduardo L. Salazar, 2005. "An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages F108-F129, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.

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