Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Direct vs bottom-up approach when forecasting GDP: reconciling literature results with institutional practice

Contents:

Author Info

  • Paulo Soares Esteves
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    How should we forecast GDP? Should we forecast directly the overall GDP or aggregate the forecasts for each of its components using some level of disaggregation? The search for the answer continues to motivate several horse races between these two approaches. Nevertheless, independently of the results, institutions producing shortterm forecasts usually opt for a bottom-up approach. This paper uses an application for the euro area to show that the option between direct and bottom-up approaches as the level of disaggregation chosen by forecasters is not determined by the results of those races.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201129.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w201129.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201129

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: R. do Ouro, 27, 1100 LISBOA
    Phone: 21 321 32 00
    Fax: 21 346 48 43
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.bportugal.pt
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Nikita Perevalov & Philipp Maier, 2010. "On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 10-10, Bank of Canada.
    3. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (DEE-NTDD).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.