This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Using monthly data to predict quarterly output

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Robert Ingenito
Bharat Trehan
Abstract

Some time ago, the Commerce Department changed the way it calculates real gross domestic product. In response to that change, this paper presents an update of a simple model that is used to predict the growth rate of current quarter real output based on available monthly data. After searching over a set containing more than 30 different variables, we find that a model that utilized monthly data on consumption and nonfarm payroll employment to predict contemporaneous real GDP does best.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sf.frb.org/econrsrch/econrev/96-3/ingenito.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1996)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 3-11
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1996:p:3-11:n:3

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120-7702
Phone: (415) 974-2000
Fax: (415) 974-3333
Email:
Web page: http://www.frbsf.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.frbsf.org/popups/fiporder.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Forecasting Gross domestic product Employment (Economic theory) Industrial productivity Economic indicators Econometric models

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  2. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39, pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Above-average national growth in 1985 and 1986," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  4. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Brian Motley, 1992. "Index numbers and the measurement of real GDP," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bharat Trehan, 1992. "Predicting contemporaneous output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of "real-time" data in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 684, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gerhard Rünstler & Franck Sédillot, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 276, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Alternative Monetary Rules for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Canada," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 466, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Oct 2000. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tom Stark, 2000. "Does current-quarter information improve quarterly forecasts for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1997. "STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy," Working Papers 1997-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS indexes over 600000 items of research in Economics alone.

This page was last updated on 2008-9-4.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.