Using monthly data to predict quarterly output
AbstractSome time ago, the Commerce Department changed the way it calculates real gross domestic product. In response to that change, this paper presents an update of a simple model that is used to predict the growth rate of current quarter real output based on available monthly data. After searching over a set containing more than 30 different variables, we find that a model that utilized monthly data on consumption and nonfarm payroll employment to predict contemporaneous real GDP does best.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.
Volume (Year): (1996)
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