Sources of Output Fluctuations during the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression
AbstractThis paper decomposes output fluctuations during the 1913 to 1940 period into components resulting from aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks. We estimate a number of structural models, all of which yield qualitatively similar results. While identification is normally achieved by assuming that aggregate demand shocks have no long-run real effects, we also estimate models that allow demand shocks to permanently affect output. Our findings support the following three conclusions: (1) there was a large negative aggregate demand shock in November 1929, immediately after the stock market crash; (2) aggregate demand shocks are largely responsible for the decline in output through mid-1931; and (3) beginning in mid-1931 there is an aggregate supply collapse that coincides with the onset of severe bank panics. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.
Volume (Year): 76 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
Other versions of this item:
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Georgios Karras, 1992. "Sources of Output Fluctuations During the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 4049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988.
"Seasonal Integration And Cointegration,"
0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Bernanke, Ben S, 1983.
"Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993.
"Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Robert J. Gordon & James A. Wilcox, 1978. "Monetarist Interpretations of the Great Depression: An Evaluation and Critique," NBER Working Papers 0300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
- Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles N. Evans, 1997.
"Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression,"
NBER Working Papers
6071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression," International Finance Discussion Papers 591, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bordo, Michael D & Choudhri, Ehsan U & Schwartz, Anna J, 1995.
"Could Stable Money Have Averted the Great Contraction?,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(3), pages 484-505, July.
- Michael D. Bordo & Ehsan U. Choudhri & Anna J. Schwartz, 1995. "Could Stable Money Have Averted The Great Contraction?," NBER Working Papers 4481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2009. "Public investment and business cycles: The case of Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 419-426, September.
- Masahiko Shibamoto & Ryuzo Miyao, 2008. "Understanding Output and Price Dynamics in Japan: Why Have Japan's Price Movements Been Relatively Stable Since the 1990s?," Discussion Paper Series 219, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Miyao, Ryuzo, 2000. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Japan: A Break in the 1990s?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 366-384, December.
- Karras, Georgios & Lee, Jin Man & Stokes, Houston, 2006. "Why are postwar cycles smoother? Impulses or propagation?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 392-406.
- José U. Mora, 2008. "Relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks in the Venezuelan economy," Economía, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (IIES). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Universidad de Los Andes. Mérida, Venezuela, vol. 33(25), pages 61-86, january-j.
- Fujiwara, Ippei, 2006.
"Evaluating monetary policy when nominal interest rates are almost zero,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 434-453, September.
- Ippei Fujiwara, 2004. "Evaluating Monetary Policy When Nominal Interest Rates Are Almost Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 620, Econometric Society.
- Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-Seung & Summers, Peter M., 2000. "Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: A Generalization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 53-68, January.
- Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1996.
"Monetary Regimes, Inflation And Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud,"
Departmental Working Papers
199407, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1994. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation and Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 16, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2010. "The effects of fiscal policy in the 1990s in Japan: A VAR analysis with event studies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 80-87, March.
- James L. Butkiewicz & Kim Lane Leong Long, 2003. "Predicting Interwar Business Cycles with the Interest Rate Yield Spread," Working Papers 03-07, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.