This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Sources of Output Fluctuations During the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Stephen G. Cecchetti
Georgios Karras

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper decomposes output fluctuations during the 1913 to 1940 period into components resulting from aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks. We estimates a number of different models, all of which yield qualitatively similar results. While identification is normally achieved by assuming that aggregate demand shocks have no long run real effects, we also estimate models that allow demand shocks to permanently affect output. Our findings support the following three conclusions: (i) there was a large negative aggregate demand shock in November 1929, immediately after the stock market crash; (ii) aggregate demand shocks are mainly responsible for the decline in output through mid to late 1931; (iii) beginning in mid 1931 there is an aggregate supply collapse that coincides with the onset on severe bank panics.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4049.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4049.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 1992
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4049

Note: ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert J. Gordon & James A. Wilcox, 1981. "Monetarist Interpretations of the Great Depression: An Evaluation and Critique," NBER Working Papers 0300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1447-1463, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Masahiko Shibamoto & Ryuzo Miyao, 2008. "Understanding Output and Price Dynamics in Japan: Why Have Japan's Price Movements Been Relatively Stable Since the 1990s?," Discussion Paper Series 219, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Ehsan U. Choudhri & Anna J. Schwartz, 1995. "Could Stable Money Have Averted The Great Contraction?," NBER Working Papers 4481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. James L. Butkiewicz & Kim Lane Leong Long, 2003. "Predicting Interwar Business Cycles with the Interest Rate Yield Spread," Working Papers 03-07, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ippei Fujiwara, 2004. "Evaluating Monetary Policy When Nominal Interest Rates Are Almost Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 620, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1996. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation And Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," Departmental Working Papers 199407, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS was sponsored from 1997 to 2002 by the Université du Québec à Montréal.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.