Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling

Contents:

Author Info

  • Serena Ng
  • Jonathan H. Wright

Abstract

This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession, which was unlike most other postwar recessions in the United States in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps explain why economic models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times. We discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated business cycle facts.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.51.4.1120
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/jel/ds/5104/JEL.51.4.1120_ds.zip
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Literature.

Volume (Year): 51 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 1120-54

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:aea:jeclit:v:51:y:2013:i:4:p:1120-54

Note: DOI: 10.1257/jel.51.4.1120
Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.aeaweb.org/journal
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.aeaweb.org/subscribe.html

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, EconWPA.
  2. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Prices and quantities in the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Staff Reports 396, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
  6. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," Caepr Working Papers 2008-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 14656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randall S & Laeven, Luc, 2006. "Banking Crises, Financial Dependence and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 15714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky's "Financial Instability Hypothesis"," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
  13. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6600, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
  15. Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Forecast Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 08-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  16. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2014. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Working Papers 14-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  17. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  18. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Margaret McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  20. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER), 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-time Estimates of the Macro Economy," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-02, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  21. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," NBER Working Papers 16741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2004. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," NBER Working Papers 10592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2009. "Credit Crises, Money and Contractions: an historical view," NBER Working Papers 15389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  25. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2012. "Getting Up to Speed on the Financial Crisis: A One-Weekend-Reader's Guide," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 128-50, March.
  26. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Diebold & Rudebusch, . "Measuring Business Cycle: A Modern Perspective," Home Pages _061, University of Pennsylvania.
  28. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  29. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2012. "Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand," Working Papers 12-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  30. Friedman, Milton, 1993. "The "Plucking Model" of Business Fluctuations Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 171-77, April.
  31. Simon G. Gilchrist & Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The financial accelerator and the flight to quality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  32. Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  33. James Yetman & Michael B. Devereux, 2010. "leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 1341, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  34. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," CQER Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  35. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-66, October.
  37. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  38. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
  39. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
  40. Comin, D. & Gertler, M., 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  41. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  43. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Burcu Duygan-Bump & José Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2008. "Looking behind the aggregates: a reply to “Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008”," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU08-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  44. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-80, Fall.
  46. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  47. Guido Lorenzoni & Veronica Guerrieri, 2011. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings and the Liquidity Trap," 2011 Meeting Papers 1414, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  48. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
  50. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Gal�, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
  51. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
  52. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  53. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
  54. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2007. "Determining the Number of Primitive Shocks in Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 52-60, January.
  55. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  56. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions," Working Papers 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  57. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
  58. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 468-479.
  59. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
  60. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  61. Allen Sinai, 1992. "Financial and Real Business Cycles," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-54, Winter.
  62. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  63. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  64. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
  65. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  66. Oliver J. Blanchard, 1997. "The Medium Run," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 89-158.
  67. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  68. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  69. Gary B. Gorton, 2012. "Some Reflections on the Recent Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 18397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  71. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2012. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 16-19, May.
  73. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
  74. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  75. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Ng and Wright: Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling
    by Gray in Pseudo-true News on 2013-10-01 04:34:06
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2014. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Complex Evolving Economies," Working Papers 05/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  2. Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tania Treibich, 2014. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Sciences Po publications 2014-05, Sciences Po.
  3. Croushore, Dean & Marsten, Katherine, 2014. "The continuing power of the yield spread in forecasting recessions," Working Papers 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," Cahiers de recherche 1341, CIRPEE.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:jeclit:v:51:y:2013:i:4:p:1120-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros) or (Michael P. Albert).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.