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Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions

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  • S. Boragan Aruoba
  • Francis X. Diebold

Abstract

We sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real-time and push it in new directions. In particular, we focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity. As for the recent recession, we find that (1) it likely ended around July 2009; (2) its most extreme aspects concern a real activity decline that was unusually long but less unusually deep, and an inflation decline that was unusually deep but brief; and (3) its real activity and inflation interactions were strongly positive, consistent with an adverse demand shock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15657.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15657

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Nowcasting: recession ended in July 2009
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-02-10 15:19:00
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Cited by:
  1. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-54, December.
  2. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2011. "Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective," NBER Working Papers 17421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Troy Matheson, 2011. "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 11/43, International Monetary Fund.

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