A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area

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A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area

Author Info

Pilar Bengoechea () (European Commission)
Gabriel Pérez-Quirós () (Banco de España)

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Gabriel Perez Quiros

Abstract

This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provides timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a useful tool that allows him or her to analyze current business conditions and make predictions about the future state of the economy. In this spirit, we find that the European Commission industrial confidence indicator (ICI) is useful in providing that information.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0419.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0419

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Ramón Cobo-Reyes & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2005. "The effect of oil price on industrial production and on stock returns," ThE Papers 05/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.. [Downloadable!]
Javier Jareño, 2007. "Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy," Banco de EspaÃ±a Occasional Papers 0706, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-10.

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