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Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?

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  • Annabelle Mourougane
  • Moreno Roma

Abstract

We investigate the usefulness of the European Commission confidence indicators for forecasting real GDP growth rates in the short run is investigated in selected euro area countries (Belgium, Spain, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands) which account for almost 90% of the euro area. A linear relationship between real GDP and confidence indicators is estimated and the forecasting performance of the estimated models compared with a benchmark ARIMA model. It is generally found that confidence indicators can be useful for forecasting real GDP growth rates in the short-run in most of the above-mentioned countries. Notwithstanding some signs of instability in the relation between confidence indicators and real GDP, improvements with the use of time-varying parameter models appear to be fairly limited but confirm the findings obtained with constant parameter techniques. The results obtained are robust to a wide range of variant tests implemented.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 10 (2003)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 519-522

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:8:p:519-522

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  1. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January.
  2. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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Cited by:
  1. Lucia F. Dunn & Ida A. Mirzaie, 2006. "Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked to Manufacturing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 343-351, April.
  2. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2013. "Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 233-237, February.
  3. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
  4. Antonio Caleiro, 2006. "How is confidence related to unemployment in Portugal?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 887-890.
  5. Roman Horvath, 2012. "Do Confidence Indicators Help Predict Economic Activity? The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 398-412, November.
  6. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2010. "Can the Inclusion of Calendar and Temperature Effects Improve Nowcasts and Forecasts of Construction Sector Output Based on Business Surveys?," WIFO Working Papers 374, WIFO.
  7. Qiao, Zhuo & Chu, Patrick Kuok-Kun, 2014. "Does fine wine price contain useful information to forecast GDP? Evidence from major developed countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 75-79.
  8. Aleksejs Melihovs & Svetlana Rusakova, 2005. "Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Development in Latvia Using Business and Consumer Survey Data," Working Papers 2005/04, Latvijas Banka.
  9. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada.
  10. António Caleiro, 2007. "Confidence and Unemployment in the European Union: A lesson from the 2004 enlargement," Notas Económicas, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra, issue 26, pages 15-26, December.
  11. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel P�rez Quir�s, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 215, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  12. Rünstler, Gerhard & Sédillot, Franck, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 0276, European Central Bank.

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