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Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?

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Author Info
Annabelle Mourougane
Moreno Roma

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Abstract

We investigate the usefulness of the European Commission confidence indicators for forecasting real GDP growth rates in the short run is investigated in selected euro area countries (Belgium, Spain, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands) which account for almost 90% of the euro area. A linear relationship between real GDP and confidence indicators is estimated and the forecasting performance of the estimated models compared with a benchmark ARIMA model. It is generally found that confidence indicators can be useful for forecasting real GDP growth rates in the short-run in most of the above-mentioned countries. Notwithstanding some signs of instability in the relation between confidence indicators and real GDP, improvements with the use of time-varying parameter models appear to be fairly limited but confirm the findings obtained with constant parameter techniques. The results obtained are robust to a wide range of variant tests implemented.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 10 (2003)
Issue (Month): 8 (June)
Pages: 519-522
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:8:p:519-522

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. António Caleiro, 2007. "Confidence and Unemployment in the European Union: A lesson from the 2004 enlargement," Notas Económicas, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra, issue 26, pages 15-26, December. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gerhard Rünstler & Franck Sédillot, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 276, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 160, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nicole Jonker, 2002. "Constructing quality-adjusted price indices: a comparison of hedonic and discrete choice models," Working Paper Series 172, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lucia Dunn & Ida Mirzaie, 2004. "Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked To Manufacturing," Working Papers 04-03, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. António Caleiro, 2006. "How is confidence related to unemployment in Portugal?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 887-890, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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