Monica Billio () (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari) Jacques Anas (Coe Rexecode, Paris) Laurent Ferrara (Banque de Frances) Marco Lo Duca (European Central Bank)
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We propose a dating process for the business and growth Euro-zone cycles. This process is a result of a non parametric algorithm and diverse criteria assessment (duration, deepness, diffusion, synchronisation), as well as of “expert judgments” based on a combination of the following principles: a comparison of direct and indirect dating; an objective of coherence between growth cycle and business cycle turning points (ABCD approach); an objective of coherence between industrial and GDP cycles. As a complement to the traditional direct approach based on the study of Euro-zone aggregates, the main contribution of this paper is to measure the degree of diffusion and synchronisation of the cycles among the countries.
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Paper provided by University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number
2007_33.
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