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A System For Dating And Detecting Turning Points In The Euro Area

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Author Info
JACQUES ANAS
MONICA BILLIO
LAURENT FERRARA
GIAN LUIGI MAZZI

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Abstract

In the paper we aim to introduce a statistical dating and detection of turning points giving them a first economic interpretation. The main advantage of the proposed approach is represented by the fact that classical and growth cycles are jointly considered both in the dating and in the detecting stage. A key result of this choice is a better description of different economic phases as well as a more accurate investigation of the economic cyclical behaviour. The proposed approach considerably improves the relevance of information delivered to users in comparison with a standard analysis based only on classical or growth cycle components. Copyright © 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2008.01076.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 76 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
Pages: 549-577
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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:76:y:2008:i:5:p:549-577

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  1. Lemoine , Matthieu & Mazzi , Gian Luigi & Monperrus-Veroni , Paola & Reynes, Frédéric, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for theeuro-area: comparing production function with unobserved componentsand SVAR approaches," MPRA Paper 13128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.

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