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Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research

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  • Jakob de Haan
  • Robert Inklaar
  • Richard Jong-A-Pin

Abstract

This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed. Copyright 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation � 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 22 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 234-273

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:22:y:2008:i:2:p:234-273

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  1. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries any Different?," Research Department Publications 4315, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
  3. Sorensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2295, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Christian Richter & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2005. "A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Coherences of the US Business," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 45, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Olaf Sleijpen, 2002. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 23-42, 03.
  6. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
  7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," Working Papers 2004-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
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