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Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy

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  • Darné, Olivier
  • Ferrara, Laurent

Abstract

In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in the euro area, namely the peaks and troughs of the growth rate which delimitate the slowdown and acceleration phases of the economy. Our aim is twofold: First, we put forward a reference turning point chronology of this cycle on a monthly basis, based on gross domestic product and industrial production index. We consider both euro area aggregate level and country specific cycles for the six main countries of the zone. Second, we come up with a new turning point indicator, based on business surveys carefully watched by central banks and short-term analysts, in order to follow in real-time the fluctuations of the acceleration cycle.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7376.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7376

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Keywords: Acceleration cycle; Business surveys; Dating chronology; Euro area; Turning point indicator;

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Cited by:
  1. Monfort, A., 2009. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Asset and Surplus VaR Constraints," Working papers 251, Banque de France.
  2. Fève, P. & Matheron, J. & Sahuc, J-G., 2009. "Minimum Distance Estimation and Testing of DSGE Models from Structural VARs," Working papers 245, Banque de France.
  3. Shiu-Sheng, Chen, 2012. "Predicting swings in exchange rates with macro fundamentals," MPRA Paper 35772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ferrara, L. & Vigna, O., 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.
  5. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic-Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 1002, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.

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