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Business cycles in the euro area defined with coincident economic indicators and predicted with leading economic indicators

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  • Ataman Ozyildirim

    (The Conference Board-Economics Program, New York, USA)

  • Brian Schaitkin

    (The Conference Board-Economics Program, New York, USA)

  • Victor Zarnowitz

    (The Conference Board-Economics Program, New York, USA)

Abstract

Clusters of cyclical turning points in the coincident indicators help us identify and date euro area recessions and recoveries in the past several decades. In the USA and some other countries, composite indexes of coincident indicators (CEI) are used to date classical business cycle turning points; also indexes of leading indicators (LEI) are used to help in the difficult task of predicting these turning points. This paper reviews a selection of the available data for monthly and quarterly euro area coincident and leading indicators. From these data, we develop composite indexes using methods analogous to those tested in the US CEI and LEI published by The Conference Board. We compare the resulting business cycle chronology with the existing alternatives and evaluate our selection of leading indicators in the context of how well they predict current economic activity and its major fluctuations for the euro area. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1146
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
Pages: 6-28

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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:1-2:p:6-28

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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Cited by:
  1. Dries, Liesbeth & Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis, 2011. "Job Creation And Job Destruction In The Eu Agriculture," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114430, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Carstensen, Kai & Wohlrabe, Klaus & Ziegler, Christina, 2010. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Discussion Papers in Economics 11442, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  3. Heij, C. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2009. "Macroeconomic forecasting with real-time data: an empirical comparison," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The effect of asymmetries in fiscal policy conducts on business cycle correlation in the EU," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 62, WWWforEurope.

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