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The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts

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Author Info

  • Filippo Altissimo

    (Bank of Italy, Research Department)

  • Domenico J. Marchetti

    ()
    (Bank of Italy, Research Department)

  • Gian Paolo Oneto

    (ISTAT)

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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle. On the methodological side, the study follows a schema for constructing cyclical indicators on a sound statistical basis, combining the use of traditional NBER methods with that of more recent techniques of cyclical analysis: A number of stylized facts of the Italian business cycle emerge. Among them, money and financial variables are found to lead the cycle, chronologically, by at least one year. US and UK cycles lead the Italian cycle by two to three quarters.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University in its journal Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia.

    Volume (Year): 59 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 (September)
    Pages: 147-220

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    Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v59_n2_p147-220

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    Related research

    Keywords: business cycles; cyclical indicators; leading indicators; stylized facts;

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    Cited by:
    1. Bruno, Giancarlo & Malgarini, Marco, 2002. "An Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Italian Economy," MPRA Paper 42331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Riccardo Bonci & Francesco Columba, 2007. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks On Flow Of Funds:The Italian Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 75, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H.Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yaneth Rocío Betancourt & Juan David Barón, . "Un Indice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 195, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio Nieto & Mario Ramos, . "A Leading Index for the Colombian Economic Activity," Borradores de Economia 243, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Fabio H. Nieto & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "About a Coincident Index for the State of the Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001938, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Guido De Blasio, 2003. "Does Trade Credit Substitute Bank Credit? Evidence From Firm-Level Data," IMF Working Papers 03/166, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
    8. Erich Battistin & Enrico Rettore & Ugo Trivellato, 2005. "Choosing among alternative classification criteria to measure the labour force state," IFS Working Papers W05/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

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