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The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts

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Author Info

  • Altissimo, F.
  • Marchetti, D.J.
  • Oneto, G.P.
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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy, including real, monetary and international variables. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle; the leading indicator anticipates the turning points of the coincident indicator on average by six months.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi in its series Papers with number 377.

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    Length: 126 pages
    Date of creation: 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fth:banita:377

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Banca d'Italia-Servizio Studi-Divisione Biblioteca e Pubblicazioni - Via N azionale, 91 -00184 Rome, Italy.
    Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it/
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    Related research

    Keywords: BUSINESS CYCLES ; MONEY ; MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS;

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    Cited by:
    1. Guido De Blasio, 2003. "Does Trade Credit Substitute Bank Credit? Evidence from Firm-level Data," IMF Working Papers 03/166, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Eugenio Gaiotti & Andrea Generale, 2002. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects? A Look at the Investment Decisions of Italian Firms," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 61(1), pages 29-59, June.
    3. Bruno, Giancarlo & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008. "Models to date the business cycle: The Italian case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 899-911, September.
    4. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003678, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Riccardo Bonci & Francesco Columba, 2007. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks On Flow Of Funds:The Italian Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 75, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio Nieto & Mario Ramos, . "A Leading Index for the Colombian Economic Activity," Borradores de Economia 243, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2009. "Asymmetric effects of the business cycle on bank credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1624-1635, September.
    8. Erich Battistin & Enrico Rettore & Ugo Trivellato, 2005. "Choosing among alternative classification criteria to measure the labour force state," IFS Working Papers W05/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
    10. Fabio H. Nieto & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "About a Coincident Index for the State of the Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001938, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    11. Bruno, Giancarlo & Malgarini, Marco, 2002. "An Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Italian Economy," MPRA Paper 42331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Stefano Fachin & Andrea Gavosto, 2010. "Trends of labour productivity in Italy: a study with panel co-integration methods," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(7), pages 755-769, November.

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