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Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators

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  • Ataman Ozyildirim

    (The Conference Board)

  • Brian Schaitkin

    (The Conference Board)

  • Victor Zarnowitz

    (The Conference Board)

Abstract

Clusters of cyclical turning points in the coincident indicators help us identify and date Euro Area recessions and recoveries in the past several decades. In the U.S. and some other countries, composite indexes of coincident indicators (CEI) are used to date classical business cycle turning points; also indexes of leading indicators (LEI) are used to help in the difficult task of predicting these turning points. This paper reviews a selection of the available data for monthly and quarterly Euro Area coincident and leading indicators. From these data, we develop composite indexes using methods analogous to those tested in the U.S. CEI and LEI published by The Conference Board. We compare the resulting business cycle chronology with the existing alternatives and evaluate our selection of leading indicators in the context of how well they predict current economic activity and its major fluctuations for the Euro Area.

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File URL: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/workingpapers.cfm?pdf=E-0031-08-WP
File Function: First version, 2008
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Conference Board, Economics Program in its series Economics Program Working Papers with number 08-04.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cnf:wpaper:0804

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Keywords: Business Cycle; Indicators; Leading Index; Times Series; Forecasting;

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Cited by:
  1. Ciaian, Pavel & Dries, Liesbeth & Kancs, d'Artis, 2010. "Job creation and job destruction in the EU agriculture," 114th Seminar, April 15-16, 2010, Berlin, Germany 61351, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Carstensen, Kai & Wohlrabe, Klaus & Ziegler, Christina, 2010. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Discussion Papers in Economics 11442, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  3. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The effect of asymmetries in fiscal policy conducts on business cycle correlation in the EU," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 62, WWWforEurope.
  4. Heij, C. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2009. "Macroeconomic forecasting with real-time data: an empirical comparison," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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