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The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts

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Author Info

  • Filippo Altissimo

    ()
    (Banca dÂ’Italia, Research Department)

  • Domenico J. Marchetti

    ()
    (Banca dÂ’Italia, Research Department)

  • Gian Paolo Oneto

    ()
    (ISAE)

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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy, including real, monetary and international variables. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle; the leading indicator anticipates the turning points of the coincident indicator on average by six months. On the methodological side, the study provides a scheme for constructing cyclical indicators on a sound statistical basis through iterative steps, combining the use of traditional NBER methods with that of more recent techniques of cyclical analysis. A number of stylized facts of the Italian business cycle emerge. Among them, money and financial variables are found to lead the cycle, chronologically, by an average of between one year and sixteen months. There is also strong evidence of synchronization of international cycles, with the US and UK cycles leading the Italian cycle by two to three quarters. The main linking channel seems to be trade, with Italian exports to EU countries leading the cycle by six months on average.

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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/temidi/td00/td377_00/td_377/tema_377_00.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 377.

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    Date of creation: Oct 2000
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    Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_377_00

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    Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
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    Related research

    Keywords: business cycles; cyclical indicators; leading indicators; Italian stylized fact;

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    References

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    1. Smith, R Todd, 1992. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(4), pages 413-30, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H.Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yaneth Rocío Betancourt & Juan David Barón, . "Un Indice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 195, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Giancarlo Bruno & Marco Malgarini, 2002. "An Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Italian Economy," ISAE Working Papers 28, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    3. Guido De Blasio, 2004. "Does trade credit substitute for bank credit?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 498, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Guido De Blasio, 2003. "Does Trade Credit Substitute Bank Credit? Evidence From Firm-Level Data," IMF Working Papers 03/166, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Riccardo Bonci & Francesco Columba, 2007. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks On Flow Of Funds:The Italian Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 75, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Fabio H. Nieto & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "About a Coincident Index for the State of the Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001938, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    7. Bruno, Giancarlo & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008. "Models to date the business cycle: The Italian case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 899-911, September.
    8. Eugenio Gaiotti & Andrea Generale, 2002. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects? A Look at the Investment Decisions of Italian Firms," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 61(1), pages 29-59, June.
    9. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2009. "Asymmetric effects of the business cycle on bank credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1624-1635, September.
    10. Massimo Caruso, 2006. "Monetary Policy Impulses, Local Output and the Transmission Mechanism," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(1), pages 1-30, May.
    11. Riccardo Bonci & Francesco Columba, 2008. "Monetary Policy Effects: New Evidence from the Italian Flow of Funds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 678, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio Nieto & Mario Ramos, . "A Leading Index for the Colombian Economic Activity," Borradores de Economia 243, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Erich Battistin & Enrico Rettore & Ugo Trivellato, 2005. "Choosing among alternative classification criteria to measure the labour force state," IFS Working Papers W05/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
    15. Stefano Fachin & Andrea Gavosto, 2010. "Trends of labour productivity in Italy: a study with panel co-integration methods," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(7), pages 755-769, November.

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