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The Cyclical Behavior of Prices

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Author Info
Smith, R Todd

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Abstract

Much empirical work has documented a procyclical general price level for many countries. Since there is much in the recent theoretical literature and academic debates that runs counter to a procyclical price level, a comprehensive reexamination of the empirical evidence for the cyclical behavior of prices is worthwhile. It is found that the price levels for ten countries generally are procyclical from the late nineteenth century until the Second World War with the exception of a period around World War I and they are countercyclical for the post-Depression period with the exception of a period in the 1950s or 1960s. Copyright 1992 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 24 (1992)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 413-30
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:24:y:1992:i:4:p:413-30

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  1. Helmut Zink, 1993. "Monopolistic competition and the cyclicality of pricing and productivity—A typology of industries," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 109-152, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David Smant, 1996. "Re-examining the cyclical behaviour of prices and output," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 651-674, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jakob Madsen & Bill Yang, 1998. "Asymmetric price adjustment in a menu-cost model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 295-309, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James Peery Cover & Paul Pecorino, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy and the Correlation between Prices and Output," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  5. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Do macroeconomic announcements move inflation forecasts?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 507-518. [Downloadable!]
  6. Petr Duczynski, 2005. "On the Empirics of the Non-neutrality of Money: Evidence from Developed Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 267-282, May. [Downloadable!]
  7. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1996. "Endogenous money supply and the business cycle," Working Paper 9605, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Michael R. Pakko, 1997. "The cyclical relationship between output and prices: an analysis in the frequency domain," Working Papers 1997-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Apostolos Serletis & David Krause, 1996. "Nominal stylized facts of U. S. business cycles," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 49-54. [Downloadable!]
  10. James Peery Cover & C. James Hueng, 2006. "Why Did the Sign of the Price-Output Correlation Change? Evidence from a Structural VAR with GARCH Errors," Working Papers 200602, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2006. [Downloadable!]
  11. Yang-Woo Kim, 1996. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 69-82. [Downloadable!]
  12. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 377, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Quinn, Terry & Mawdsley, Andrew, 1996. "Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/96, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  14. Petr DUCZYNSKI, 2002. "On the Empirics of the Nonneutrality of Money: Evidence From Developed Countries," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/05, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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