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The cyclical relationship between output and prices: an analysis in the frequency domain

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  • Michael R. Pakko

Abstract

Recent research showing negative correlations between detrended output and prices during the postwar period has brought into question the conventional wisdom that prices are procyclical. However, this finding has been shown to be sensitive to the sample period considered. This paper examines the relationship between output and prices in the frequency domain: using quarterly data on GNP and the deflator for the period 1875-1994, the covariance of output and prices is decomposed into its spectral components in order to investigate whether the differences in the price-output relationship across sample periods reflect changes in the importance of various frequencies within the correlations, or whether they reflect more fundamental changes in the entire spectral relationship.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1997-007.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, August 2000, 32(2,part1), pp. 155-67
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1997-007

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Business cycles ; Prices ; Production (Economic theory);

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  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  2. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 1994. "On the welfare cost of inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1992. "Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in the G7 from a Real Business Cycles Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 681, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  12. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 347-369, April.
  13. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  18. Judd, John P & Trehan, Bharat, 1995. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices: Interpreting the Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 789-97, August.
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Cited by:
  1. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W., 2004. "The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1333-1347, December.
  2. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2000. "The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change," Working Papers 2000-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 347-369, April.
  4. Olson, Eric & Enders, Walter & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "An empirical investigation of the Taylor curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 380-390.
  5. Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata & Mthuli Ncube & Eric Olson, 2013. "Working Paper 189 - An Empirical Investigation of the Taylor Curve in South Africa," Working Paper Series 992, African Development Bank.
  6. James Peery Cover & C. James Hueng, 2006. "Why Did the Sign of the Price-Output Correlation Change? Evidence from a Structural VAR with GARCH Errors," Working Papers 200602, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2006.
  7. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Marco & Gallegati, Mauro, 2005. "On the nature and causes of business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 81-100, January.

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