The Cyclical Behavior of Prices: Interpreting the Evidence
Abstract
Previous studies of the cyclical behavior of prices have found that the cross-correlations between output and prices in post-WWII U.S. data are generally negative. These correlations h have been interpreted as being more consistent with supply-driven models of business cycle fluctuations than with models that focus on demand shocks. In this paper, the authors show that the signs of price-output correlations provide little information about the underlying shock; for instance, a simple Keynesian model driven by demand shocks leads to negative correlations between these variables. The authors' results suggest that price-output correlations may not be a particularly useful way to characterize the cyclical behavior of prices. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 27 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 789-97
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- John P. Judd & Bharat Trehan, 1993. "The cyclical behavior of prices: interpreting the evidence," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- David Smant, 1996. "Re-examining the cyclical behaviour of prices and output," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 651-674, December.
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"On the sources of business cycles in the G-7,"
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- Pakko, Michael R, 2000. "The Cyclical Relationship between Output and Prices: An Analysis in the Frequency Domain," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 382-99, August.
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- James Peery Cover & C. James Hueng, 2006. "Why Did the Sign of the Price-Output Correlation Change? Evidence from a Structural VAR with GARCH Errors," Working Papers 200602, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2006.
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- Brian Motley, 1998. "Growth and inflation: a cross-country study," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 15-28.
- Yang-Woo Kim, 1996. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 69-82.
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"The comovement between output and prices,"
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- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Den Haan JME(2000) correlation of comovements," Statistical Software Components RTZ00042, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Dean Croushore, 1998. "Low inflation: the surprise of the 1990s," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-12.
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