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Procyclical prices: a demi-myth?

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Author Info
Holger C. Wolf
Abstract

This paper critically reevaluates recent claims that the postwar U.S. price level exhibits countercyclicality. While overall countercyclicality is confirmed, temporal disaggregation suggests a shift from pro- to countercyclicality in the early 1970s. Furthermore, the countercyclicality is markedly more pronounced for negative than for positive output innovations. The evidence thus casts doubt on single-source business cycle explanations.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its journal Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (1991)
Issue (Month): Spr ()
Pages: 25-28
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1991:i:spr:p:25-28:n:v.15no.2

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Keywords: Prices ; Business cycles;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Response to a skeptic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 28-33. [Downloadable!]
  2. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2000. "The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change," Working Papers 2000-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David Smant, 1996. "Re-examining the cyclical behaviour of prices and output," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 651-674, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. James Peery Cover & Paul Pecorino, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy and the Correlation between Prices and Output," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  4. James Peery Cover & C. James Hueng, 2006. "Why Did the Sign of the Price-Output Correlation Change? Evidence from a Structural VAR with GARCH Errors," Working Papers 200602, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2006. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael R. Pakko, 1997. "The cyclical relationship between output and prices: an analysis in the frequency domain," Working Papers 1997-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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