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Gibson’s Paradox, Monetary Policy, and the Emergence of Cycles

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  • Greg Hannsgen

    (Levy Economics Institute)

Abstract

Many empirical studies have found that interest rate increases have a positive effect on the price level. This paper pursues an obvious, but neglected explanation: interest payments are a cost of production that is at least in part passed on to customers. A model shows that the cost- push effect of inflation, long known as Gibson’s paradox, intensifies destabilizing forces and can be involved in the generation of cycles. An empirical investigation finds that the positive association of interest rates with inflation or the log of the price level is present in data from the 1950s to present.

Suggested Citation

  • Greg Hannsgen, 2004. "Gibson’s Paradox, Monetary Policy, and the Emergence of Cycles," Macroeconomics 0407029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0407029
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 17
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Greg Hannsgen, 2005. "Minsky's acceleration channel and the role of money," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 471-489.
    2. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    3. Medio,Alfredo & Lines,Marji, 2001. "Nonlinear Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521558747.
    4. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
    5. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 14(Spr), pages 3-18.
    6. Medio,Alfredo & Lines,Marji, 2001. "Nonlinear Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521551861.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joerg Bibow, 2005. "Liquidity Preference Theory Revisited—To Ditch or to Build on It?," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0508003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Eckhard Hein, 2010. "Shareholder Value Orientation, Distribution And Growth—Short‐ And Medium‐Run Effects In A Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 302-332, May.
    3. Greg Hannsgen, 2007. "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy: A Critical Review," Chapters, in: Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer (ed.), A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Seçkin Kabak & Tuðçe Dallý, 2023. "Gibson Paradox: Panel Data Analysis on ASEAN-T Countries," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 12-27, March.
    5. Eckhard Hein, 2009. "A (Post-) Keynesian perspective on "financialisation"," IMK Studies 01-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "The Macroeconomics of Finance-Dominated Capitalism – and its Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14931.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gibson’s Paradox; Inflation; Monetary Policy Rules; Nonlinear Dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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