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Optimal Monetary Policy and the Correlation between Prices and Output

Author

Listed:
  • Cover James Peery

    (University of Alabama)

  • Pecorino Paul

    (University of Alabama)

Abstract

Several empirical papers have established the fact of a negative price-output correlation for the United States in the post WWII era. Much of this work appears to interpret the sign of this correlation under the assumption that monetary policy is passive. This paper uses a simple aggregate supply and demand model to examine how an optimizing monetary policy affects the price-output correlation. The model is capable of explaining why the price-output correlation in the United States is positive with prewar data but negative with postwar data. The model implies that a negative price-output correlation can emerge under an optimal policy only if policymakers are concerned with both inflation and output and the underlying economy is one in which both demand and supply shocks affect output. The model implies that a negative price-output correlation is inconsistent with real business cycle models, while a positive correlation does not necessarily support the use of neo-Keynesian models.

Suggested Citation

  • Cover James Peery & Pecorino Paul, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy and the Correlation between Prices and Output," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:contributions.3:y:2003:i:1:n:2
    DOI: 10.2202/1534-6005.1064
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. James Peery Cover & C. James Hueng, 2006. "Why Did the Sign of the Price-Output Correlation Change? Evidence from a Structural VAR with GARCH Errors," Working Papers 200602, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2006.
    2. James Peery Cover & C. James Hueng, 2003. "The Correlation between Shocks to Output and the Price Level: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(1), pages 75-92, July.
    3. Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata & Mthuli Ncube & Eric Olson, 2013. "Working Paper 189 - An Empirical Investigation of the Taylor Curve in South Africa," Working Paper Series 992, African Development Bank.

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