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Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator

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Author Info
Quinn, Terry (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)
Mawdsley, Andrew (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)
Abstract

This paper presents the results of research into the construction of a composite leading indicator of the Irish rate of inflation, as measured by the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It follows the work of Fagan and Fell (1994) who applied the business cycle leading indicator methodology, initially established by Mitchell and Burns (1938,1946), to construct a composite leading indicator of the Irish business cycle.

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File URL: http://www.centralbank.ie/data/TechPaperFiles/4RT96.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI) in its series Research Technical Papers with number 4/RT/96.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Jun 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/96

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Smith, R Todd, 1992. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(4), pages 413-30, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Kenny, Geoff, 1998. "The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/98, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Quinn, Terry & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "Inflation Analysis: An Overview," MPRA Paper 11361, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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