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Kompozitné predstihové indikátory hospodárskych cyklov krajín V4 a ich komparácia s CLI Eurostatu a OECD
[Composite Leading Indicators of Economic Cycles of V4 Countries and their Comparison to the CLI of the Eurostat and the OECD]

Author

Listed:
  • Emília Jakubíková
  • Andrea Tkáčová
  • Anna Bánociová

Abstract

This article's objective is to suggest and create the composite leading indicators and their importance for monitoring in a short term prediction of economic cycles in the V4. We describe in detail the methodologies of OECD and Eurostat, which deal with the prediction of the economic cycles in the V4 countries through CLI. The relation of 475 selected economic indicators and reference series, which represent the economic cycle of the V4 countries, is analyzed in the empirical part of this article. Based on the performed analysis, we define groups of leading, parallel and lagged indicators. We choose those leading indicators that are the most appropriate for the creation of CLI. Then the created CLIs and their prediction abilities are studied through the values of crosscorrelations. Besides the creation of our own CLIs, we also compare them with CLIs of Eurostat and OECD and create the conclusions on suitability resp. unacceptability of the individual CLIs for a given V4 country.

Suggested Citation

  • Emília Jakubíková & Andrea Tkáčová & Anna Bánociová, 2014. "Kompozitné predstihové indikátory hospodárskych cyklov krajín V4 a ich komparácia s CLI Eurostatu a OECD [Composite Leading Indicators of Economic Cycles of V4 Countries and their Comparison to the," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 194-215.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2014:y:2014:i:2:id:946:p:194-215
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.946
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; composite leading indicator; reference series; cyclical indicator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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