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Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy

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  • Darné, O.
  • Ferrara, L.

Abstract

In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in the euro area, namely the peaks and troughs of the growth rate which delimitate the slowdown and acceleration phases of the economy. Our aim is twofold: First, we put forward a reference turning point chronology of this cycle on a monthly basis, based on gross domestic product and industrial production index. We consider both euro area aggregate level and country specific cycles for the six main countries of the zone. Second, we come up with a new turning point indicator, based on business surveys carefully watched by central banks and short-term analysts, in order to follow in real-time the fluctuations of the acceleration cycle. Classification-JEL : C22, C52, E32.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 239.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:239

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Keywords: Acceleration cycle; Euro area; Dating chronology; Turning point indicator; Business surveys.;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Shiu-Sheng, Chen, 2012. "Predicting swings in exchange rates with macro fundamentals," MPRA Paper 35772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2009. "Minimum Distance Estimation and Testing of DSGE Models from Structural VARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 883-894, December.
  3. Ferrara, L. & Vigna, O., 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.
  4. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic-Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 1002, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  5. Monfort, A., 2009. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Asset and Surplus VaR Constraints," Working papers 251, Banque de France.

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