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What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence

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Author Info
Peter M. Summers

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Abstract

Over the last 20 years or so, the volatility of aggregate economic activity has fallen dramatically in most of the industrialized world. The timing and nature of the decline vary across countries, but the phenomenon has been so widespread and persistent that it has earned the label: “the Great Moderation.” A growing body of research has focused on the Great Moderation and its possible explanations, especially as it applies to the U.S. experience. The literature documents the international dimension of this volatility reduction, but so far little is known about the possible causes from a cross-country perspective. Summers shows why the Great Moderation has indeed been a common feature of much of the industrialized world. Specifically, he focuses on the reduction in the volatility of GDP growth that occurred in the G-7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Australia. He uses international evidence to evaluate the merits of three likely explanations. He concludes that, from an international perspective, good luck in the form of smaller energy price shocks is not a compelling explanation for widespread moderation of GDP growth volatility. Rather, the Great Moderation is more likely due to better monetary policy outcomes and improved inventory management techniques.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
Pages: 5-32
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2005:i:qiii:p:5-32:n:v.90no.3

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Keywords: Gross domestic product ; Group of Seven countries ; Monetary policy;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. D van Dijk & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0204, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202. [Downloadable!]
  8. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Have output growth rates stabilised? evidence from the g-7 economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 232-246, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Allan H. Meltzer, 2005. "Origins of the Great Inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 145-176. [Downloadable!]
  10. Thomas F. Siems, 2005. "Supply chain management: the science of better, faster, cheaper," In Depth, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan. [Downloadable!]
  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2004. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Efficient? A Cross Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Thomas F. Siems, 2005. "Supply chain management: the science of better, faster, cheaper," The Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar, pages 1, 7-12. [Downloadable!]
  14. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt Hebbel, 2008. "What Drives Inflation in the World?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 491, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Giorgio Canarella & WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence," Working papers 2008-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," MPRA Paper 16527, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele, 2009. "Managing East Asia's macroeconomic volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4989, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited," Working Papers 0904, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Documents de Travail 239, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. WenSho Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2007. "The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility," Working papers 2007-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Stefano Nobili & Gerardo Palazzo, 2008. "A beta based framework for (lower) bond risk premia," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 689, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Juan de Dios Tena & César Salazar, 2008. "Explaining inflation and output volatility in Chile: an empirical analysis of forty years," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE COLOMBIA - RCE. [Downloadable!]
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  12. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2007. "Great Moderation(s) and U.S. Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence," Working Papers 1140, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103. [Downloadable!]
  14. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(3). [Downloadable!]
  15. Thomas Beissinger, 2006. "Neue Anforderungen an eine gesamtwirtschaftliche Stabilisierung," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 277/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. José De Gregorio, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Risk of Inflation: A View From Developing Countries," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  17. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2007. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy: Lessons from Japan," Working Papers UWEC-2008-12, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Castro, Vítor, 2008. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions : More than duration dependence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 860, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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