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What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence

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Cited by:

  1. Martin Iseringhausen & Hauke Vierke, 2019. "What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 849-867, August.
  2. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
  3. Giorgio Canarella & WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence," Working Papers 0801, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  4. Kimura, Takeshi & Shiotani, Kyosuke, 2009. "Stabilized business cycles with increased output volatility at high frequencies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-19, March.
  5. Jorge M. Andraz & Nelia M. Norte, 2013. "Output volatility in the OECD: Are the member states becoming less vulnerable to exogenous shocks?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 18(2), pages 91-122, September.
  6. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2015. "The Time-Varying Effects Of Permanent And Transitory Shocks To Real Output," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 477-507, April.
  7. Hogan, Thomas L., 2015. "Has the Fed improved U.S. economic performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 257-266.
  8. Grechyna, Daryna, 2021. "Mandatory spending, political polarization, and macroeconomic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  9. Wen‐Shwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 819-838, January.
  10. Juan de Dios Tena & César Salazar, 2008. "Explaining inflation and output volatility in Chile: an empirical analysis of forty years," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
  11. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Output Growth and its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(3), pages 728-751, January.
  12. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
  13. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and the time-varying effects of aggregate shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 822-843.
  14. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2008. "Central bank's conservativeness and transparency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 179-187, December.
  15. Heise, Arne & Thieme, Sebastian, 2016. "The Short Rise and Long Fall of heterodox Economics in germany After the 1970s: Explorations in a Scientific Field of Power and Struggle," MPRA Paper 80022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Domicián Máté, 2010. "Estimating Labour Market Performance in Twenty-Three OECD Countries, 1980-2009," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(38), pages 213-232, December.
  17. Anna Batyra, 2007. "Are turbulences of Sargent and Ljungqvist consistent with lower aggregate volatility?," 2007 Meeting Papers 413, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2008. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy: Lessons from Japan," Working Papers UWEC-2008-12-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2008.
  19. Michel Aglietta & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Carlo Jaeger & Baptiste Fabert, 2015. "Financing transition in an adverse context: climate finance beyond carbon finance," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 403-420, November.
  20. Altansukh, Gantungalag & Becker, Ralf & Bratsiotis, George & Osborn, Denise R., 2017. "What is the globalisation of inflation?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-27.
  21. He, Qing & Chen, Haiqiang, 2014. "Recent macroeconomic stability in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 505-519.
  22. World Bank, 2007. "Global Development Finance 2007 : The Globalization of Corporate Finance in Developing Countries, Volume 1. Review, Analysis, and Outlook," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8126, December.
  23. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
  24. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2021. "Econometric history of the growth–volatility relationship in the USA: 1919–2017," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 15(2), pages 419-442, May.
  25. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Weiss, Matthew A., 2011. "Forecast errors before and during the Great Moderation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 278-289, July.
  26. Keating, John & Valcarcel, Victor, 2012. "Greater moderations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 168-171.
  27. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2011. "Inflation hedging portfolios in different regimes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 139-163, Bank for International Settlements.
  28. Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2013. "Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4194, CESifo.
  29. Hielscher, Kai & Markwardt, Gunther, 2012. "The role of political institutions for the effectiveness of central bank independence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 286-301.
  30. Mark Mietzner & Dirk Schiereck, 2011. "Staatsfonds als Ankerinvestoren: Eine Note zum Einstieg von Aabar bei Daimler," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 92-100, February.
  31. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  32. Antonio Forte, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_08, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  33. Elstner, Steffen & Rujin, Svetlana, 2019. "The consequences of U.S. technology changes for productivity in advanced economies," Ruhr Economic Papers 796, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  34. Jean Charles Hourcade & Michel Aglietta & Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert, 2014. "Transition to a Low-Carbon society and sustainable economic recovery, a monetary-based financial device," Post-Print hal-01692593, HAL.
  35. Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 335-364, June.
  36. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
  37. Kristina Spantig, 2013. "Keynesian Dominance in Crisis Therapy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 45-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  38. Nason James M. & Smith Gregor W, 2008. "Great Moderation(s) and US Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, November.
  39. Dooyeon Cho & Dong-Eun Rhee, 2015. "An assessment of inflation targeting in a quantitative monetary business cycle framework: evidence from four early adopters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(32), pages 3395-3413, July.
  40. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
  41. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "On the accurate characterization of business cycles in nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems," Papers 1304.4807, arXiv.org.
  42. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
  43. John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012. "What's so Great about the Great Moderation? A Multi-Country Investigation of Time-Varying Volatilities of Output Growth and Inflation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201204, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  44. Albers, Scott, 2012. "Predicting crises: Five essays on the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises," MPRA Paper 43484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Xuan, Chunji & Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Dong Heon, 2019. "New dynamics of consumption and output," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-59.
  46. Ahmad, Saad, 2016. "A multiple threshold analysis of the Fed's balancing act during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 343-358.
  47. Bataa, Erdenebat & Park, Cheolbeom, 2017. "Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 72-82.
  48. Grané, Aurea & Veiga, Helena, 2010. "Wavelet-based detection of outliers in financial time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2580-2593, November.
  49. Rüdiger, Sina, 2013. "The Federal Reserve in times of economic crisis: Paths and choices since 2007," IPE Working Papers 25/2013, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
  50. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
  51. Daniele, Vittorio, 2015. "Una stagnazione secolare? Italia, Giappone, Stati Uniti, 1950-2015 [Towards a secular stagnation? Italy, Japan, United States, 1950-2015]," MPRA Paper 69997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Thomas Beissinger, 2006. "Neue Anforderungen an eine gesamtwirtschaftliche Stabilisierung," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 277/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  53. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Investigating the U.S. Oil-Macroeconomy Nexus using Rolling Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 2702, CESifo.
  54. Baghestani, Hamid & Kherfi, Samer, 2008. "How well do U.S. consumers predict the direction of change in interest rates?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 725-732, November.
  55. Paul Blackley, 2011. "Production Adjustments for Consumer Durables and the Great Moderation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(3), pages 291-302, September.
  56. Arne Heise, 2014. "The Future of Economics in a Lakatos–Bourdieu Framework," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 70-93, July.
  57. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M. & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2015. "The effect of growth volatility on income inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 212-222.
  58. Batabyal, Sourav & Islam, Faridul & Khaznaji, Maher, 2018. "On the sources of the Great Moderation: Role of monetary policy and intermediate inputs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-9.
  59. Barbara Meller, 2013. "The two-sided effect of financial globalization on output volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(3), pages 477-504, September.
  60. José De Gregorio, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Risk of Inflation: A View From Developing Countries," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile.
  61. Christopher Thiem, 2018. "Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle: Accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3735-3751, July.
  62. Ozan EksiBy, 2017. "Lower volatility, higher inequality: are they related?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 847-869.
  63. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  65. Iwan J Azis, 2016. "Four-G Episode and the elevated risks," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 30(2), pages 3-32, November.
  66. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "Constrained discretion in Sweden," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 33-44.
  67. Qureshi, Irfan, 2016. "Monetarism, Indeterminacy and the Great Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1123, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  68. Berger, Tino & Grabert, Sibylle & Kempa, Bernd, 2017. "Global macroeconomic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 42-56.
  69. Maiga, Adam S. & Nilsson, Anders & Jacobs, Fred A., 2013. "Extent of managerial IT use, learning routines, and firm performance: A structural equation modeling of their relationship," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 297-320.
  70. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2017. "What's so great about the Great Moderation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 115-142.
  71. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Evolution of Monetary Policy in the US: The Role of Asset Prices," Working Papers 201343, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  72. Castillo, Paul & Montoya, Jimena & Quineche, Ricardo, 2016. "From the “Great Inflation” to the “Great Moderation” in Peru: A Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions Analysis," Working Papers 2016-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  73. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2012. "The dynamic adjustments of stock prices to inflation disturbances," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 117-144.
  74. Martin Komrska, 2015. "Rakouská teorie hospodářského cyklu: VAR analýza pro USA v letech 1978-2013 [The Austrian Business Cycle Theory: VAR Analysis for USA between 1978-2013]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(1), pages 57-73.
  75. David Berger, 2012. "Countercyclical Restructuring and Jobless Recoveries," 2012 Meeting Papers 1179, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  76. Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele, 2009. "Managing East Asia's macroeconomic volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4989, The World Bank.
  77. Bel, Koen & Paap, Richard, 2016. "Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on US inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1306-1316.
  78. Jambu, Marc-Antoine, 2010. "Has the Globalisation really generated more competition in OECD economies," MPRA Paper 19974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  79. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Murase, Koichi, 2013. "Great Moderation in the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 10-24.
  80. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2010. "The not-so-great moderation? Evidence on changing volatility from Australian regions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1090, The University of Melbourne.
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