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Detection of the industrial business cycle using SETAR models

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  • Ferrara, Laurent
  • Guégan, Dominique

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a threshold time series model in order to take into account certain stylized facts of the industrial business cycle, such as asymmetries in the phases of the cycle. Our aim is to point out some thresholds under (over) which a signal of turning point could be given. First, we introduce the various threshold models and we discuss both their statistical theoretical and empirical properties. Especially, we review the classical techniques to estimate the number of regimes, the threshold, the delay and the parameters of the model. Then, we apply these models to the Euro-zone industrial production index to detect, through a dynamic simulation approach, the dates of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4389/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4389.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 3.2(2005): pp. 353-372
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4389

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Keywords: Economic cycle; turning point detection; Threshold model; Euro-zone IPI;

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  1. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Marı́a & Pérez, Marı́a-Teresa, 2003. "Numerical issues in threshold autoregressive modeling of time series," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2219-2242.
  2. Maravall, Agustin & Planas, Christophe, 1999. "Estimation error and the specification of unobserved component models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 325-353, October.
  3. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gilles DUFRENOT & Dominique GUEGAN & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLLE, 2003. "A SETAR model with long-memory dynamics," Econometrics 0309002, EconWPA.
  5. Gilles Dufrénot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2005. "Long-memory dynamics in a SETAR model - Applications to stock markets," Post-Print halshs-00179339, HAL.
  6. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
  7. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
  8. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
  9. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
  10. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics.
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  12. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  13. Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara, 2004. "Detecting Cyclical Turning Points: The ABCD Approach and Two Probabilistic Indicators," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2004(2), pages 193-225.
  14. Pfann, Gerard A. & Schotman, Peter C. & Tschernig, Rolf, 1996. "Nonlinear interest rate dynamics and implications for the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 149-176, September.
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  16. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
  17. Cathy W. S. Chen & Mike K. P. So, 2003. "Subset threshold autoregression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 49-66.
  18. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  19. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415.
  20. Gilles Dufrénot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2005. "Modelling squared returns using a SETAR model with long-memory dynamics," Post-Print halshs-00179285, HAL.
  21. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear time series modelling: an introduction," Staff Reports 87, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  22. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  23. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2002. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Working Paper 2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  24. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
  25. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
  26. Proietti Tommaso, 1998. "Characterizing Asymmetries in Business Cycles Using Smooth-Transition Structural Time-Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, October.
  27. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
  28. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
  29. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  30. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-148, February.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00368358 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Roque Montero, 2011. "Does linearity in the dynamics of inflation gap and unemployment rate matter?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 614, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00423890 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.

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