Does linearity in the dynamics of inflation gap and unemployment rate matter?
AbstractThis paper tests the hypothesis of linearity against a specific form of nonlinearity in the Data Generating Process (DGP) of the unemployment rate and the difference between the inflation rate (CPI and CPIX1) and the inflation target. The test is performed over each variable using time series models. Under the null hypothesis, the DGP has a linear representation (AR model) and under the alternative, a non linear specification (SETAR model). Unlike traditional ARIMA models, these models allow the endogenous variable to have different regimes across time. The main results are: it is not possible to reject linearity in the deviation of inflation from the inflation target. During the last twenty years, inflation has converged smoothly to the target without any regime switching. Finally, strong evidence is found against linearity in the unemployment rate. On the contrary, it fluctuates with high probability between states or regimes through time.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 614.
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Roque Montero, 2012. "Does Linearity in the Dynamics of Inflation Gap and Unemployment Rate Matter?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 27(1), pages 3-26, April.
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2011-04-23 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-23 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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