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Changing-regime volatility : A fractionally integrated SETAR model

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  • Anne Peguin-Feissolle

    ()
    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579)

  • Gilles Dufrénot

    ()
    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579, DEFI - Centre de Recherche en Developpement Economique et Finance Internationale - Centre de Recherche en Developpement Economique et Finance Internationale)

  • Dominique Guegan

    ()
    (ENS - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan - École normale supérieure de Cachan - ENS Cachan)

Abstract

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model with different longmemory processes in both regimes. We briefly present the memory properties of this model and propose an estimation method. Such a process is applied to the absolute and squared returns of five stock indices. A comparison with simple ARFIMA models is made using some forecastibility criteria. Our empirical results suggest that our model offers an interesting alternative competing framework to describe the persistent dynamics in modeling the returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00410540.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00410540

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Related research

Keywords: SETAR - Long-memory - Stock indices - Forecasting;

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References

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  1. Soosung Hwang & Steve E. Satchell & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2007. "How Persistent is Stock Return Volatility? An Answer with Markov Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5-6), pages 1002-1024.
  2. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-68, July.
  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  4. Luis A. GIL-ALANA, 2001. "Estimation of Fractionally ARIMA Models for the UK Unemployment," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 62, pages 127-137.
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  10. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hsu, Chien-Te & Tauchen, George, 2000. "Using Daily Range Data to Calibrate Volatility Diffusions and Extract the Forward Integrated Variance," Working Papers 00-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  11. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2004. "Structural change and long-range dependence in volatility of exchange rates: either, neither or both?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 629-658, December.
  12. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
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  15. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Norman Swanson, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA Models for Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 200422, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  16. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2002. "The effects of the introduction of the euro on the volatility of European stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 2047-2064, October.
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  23. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:32:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Lobato, Ignacio N & Velasco, Carlos, 2000. "Long Memory in Stock-Market Trading Volume," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 410-27, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mohamed Boutahar & Gilles Dufrénot & Anne Péguin-Feissolle, 2008. "A Simple Fractionally Integrated Model with a Time-varying Long Memory Parameter d t ," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 225-241, April.
  2. Marcel Aloy & Gilles Dufrénot & Charles Lai Tong & Anne Péguin-Feissolle, 2012. "A Smooth Transition Long-Memory Model," AMSE Working Papers 1240, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Dec 2012.
  3. Heni Boubaker & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Wavelet based Estimation of Time- Varying Long Memory Model with Nonlinear Fractional Integration Parameter," Working Papers 2014-284, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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