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A predictability test for a small number of nested models

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  • Granziera, Eleonora
  • Hubrich, Kirstin
  • Moon, Hyungsik Roger

Abstract

In this paper we introduce Quasi Likelihood Ratio tests for one sided multivariate hypotheses to evaluate the null that a parsimonious model performs equally well as a small number of models which nest the benchmark. We show that the limiting distributions of the test statistics are non standard. For critical values we consider two approaches: (i) bootstrapping and (ii) simulations assuming normality of the mean square prediction error (MSPE) difference. The size and the power performance of the tests are compared via Monte Carlo experiments with existing equal and superior predictive ability tests for multiple model comparison. We find that our proposed tests are well sized for one step ahead as well as for multi-step ahead forecasts when critical values are bootstrapped. The experiments on the power reveal that the superior predictive ability test performs last while the ranking between the quasi likelihood-ratio test and the other equal predictive ability tests depends on the simulation settings. Last, we apply our test to draw conclusions about the predictive ability of a Phillips type curve for the US core inflation. JEL Classification:

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1580.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131580

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Related research

Keywords: direct multi-step forecasts; fixed regressors bootstrap.; multi-model comparison; Out-of sample; point-forecast evaluation; predictive ability;

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  1. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2010. "Oil and US GDP: A real-time out-of-sample examination," Working Paper 2010/18, Norges Bank.
  2. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 353-381, October.
  3. Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA.
  4. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
  5. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  7. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
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