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Statistical Analysis Of Economic Time Series Via Markov Switching Models

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  • Robert E. McCulloch
  • Ruey S. Tsay

Abstract

. In this paper we develop a very general Markov switching model for analysis of economic time series. Our general set‐up allows us to assess the effects of a variety of model and prior assumptions on the results. The growth rates of US quarterly real gross national product are used to illustrate the proposed analysis. We find that although the evidence is not strong the analysis does not support the model in which the dynamic behavior is constant and that allowing the dynamic structure to change affects the results. We also find that the results are sensitive to the prior specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. McCulloch & Ruey S. Tsay, 1994. "Statistical Analysis Of Economic Time Series Via Markov Switching Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 523-539, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:15:y:1994:i:5:p:523-539
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1994.tb00208.x
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