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Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?

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  • Victor Zarnowitz

Abstract

The theory presented in this paper ties together profits, investment, credit, stock prices, inflation, and interest rates. The author discusses new estimates of profit and investment functions with important roles for growth and demand and productivity, price and cost levels, risk perception, credit volume, and credit difficulties. The relationships among these endogenous variables are viewed as constituting an enduring core of business cycles, the exogenous shocks and policy effects as more transitory and peripheral.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Zarnowitz, 1999. "Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 69-90, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:13:y:1999:i:2:p:69-90
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.13.2.69
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.13.2.69
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    Cited by:

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    2. M. A. Lagesh & Maram Srikanth & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Corporate Performance during Business Cycles: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1261-1274, October.
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    6. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2006. "Monetary and prudential policies at a crossroads? New challenges in the new century," BIS Working Papers 216, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Mark D. Partridge, 2001. "Changes in U.S. and Canadian Wage Dynamics in the 1990s: How Unique Are Favorable U.S. Labor Market Developments?," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 31(1), pages 71-93, Summer.
    8. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
    9. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Erin Yeldan & Kivilcim Metin-…zcan & Ebru Voyvoda, 1999. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy : Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998," Working Papers 9905, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    11. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora, 2019. "Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread," BIS Working Papers 818, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Piero Ferri, 2007. "The Labour Market And Technical Change In Endogenous Cycles," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 609-633, November.
    13. Evren Erdoğan Coşar, 2012. "Analysis of cyclical behaviour of investment expenditures for the Turkish economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(13), pages 1213-1221, September.
    14. Colin Beardsley & John R. O'Brien, 2004. "Measuring the Impact of Regulationon Market Stability: Evidence from the US Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2004-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    15. Fazzari, Steven & Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and Keynes-Minsky cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 555-572, March.
    16. Ryan A. Compton & Jose Ricardo da Costa & Silva, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: a Kalman Filter Approach with Markov Switching," Working Papers Series 97, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    17. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2002. "Did The New Economy Vanquish The Regional Business Cycle?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(4), pages 456-469, October.
    18. Selover David D. & Jensen Roderick V. & Kroll John, 2003. "Industrial Sector Mode-Locking and Business Cycle Formation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-39, October.
    19. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2003. "Evidence of the new economy at the macroeconomic level and implications for monetary policy," Kiel Discussion Papers 401, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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