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Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?

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  • Victor Zarnowitz
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    Abstract

    The theory presented in this paper ties together profits, investment, credit, stock prices, inflation, and interest rates. The author discusses new estimates of profit and investment functions with important roles for growth and demand and productivity, price and cost levels, risk perception, credit volume, and credit difficulties. The relationships among these endogenous variables are viewed as constituting an enduring core of business cycles, the exogenous shocks and policy effects as more transitory and peripheral.

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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.13.2.69
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

    Volume (Year): 13 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 2 (Spring)
    Pages: 69-90

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    Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:13:y:1999:i:2:p:69-90

    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.13.2.69
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    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1981. "The Real Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert E. Hall, 1986. "The Role of Consumption in Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 237-266 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Blatt, John M, 1978. "On the Econometric Approach to Business-Cycle Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 292-300, July.
    6. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, December.
    7. Laidler, David, 1972. "On Wicksell's Theory of Price Level Dynamics," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 40(2), pages 125-44, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    2. Shaffer, Sherrill & Hoover, Scott, 2008. "Endogenous screening, credit crunches, and competition in laxity," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 296-314, December.
    3. Fazzari, Steven & Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and Keynes-Minsky cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 555-572, March.
    4. Colin Beardsley & John R. O'Brien, 2004. "Measuring the Impact of Regulationon Market Stability: Evidence from the US Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2004-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.

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