Modelo Estrutural com Setor Externo: Endogenização do Prêmio de Risco e do Câmbio

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Modelo Estrutural com Setor Externo: Endogenização do Prêmio de Risco e do Câmbio

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Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos
Sérgio Afonso Lago Alves
Gil Riella

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Abstract

This paper presents a small-scale structural model to the Brazilian economy with an external block. The nominal exchange rate forecast is based on an uncovered interest rate, which is estimated in monthly terms since the switching of the exchange regime in 1999. As a risk premium measurement, the C-Bond spread is estimated as a function of the fiscal and external variables and domestic and external shocks. The new structural model, with estimated equation for the nominal exchange rate, risk premium, trade balance and other external equations for key external sector variables, is submitted to a shock in the risk premium and in the inflation. Simulations show that the nominal exchange rate is not affected by a shock in inflation.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 42.

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Date of creation: Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:42

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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Veloso, Thiago & Meurer, Roberto & Da Silva, Sergio, 2007. "Inflation targeting and optimal control theory," MPRA Paper 3834, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
Moura, Marcelo L. , & Lima, Adauto R. S. & Mendonça, Rodrigo M., 2008. "Exchange Rate and Fundamentals: The Case of Brazil," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_112, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
Thiago Veloso & Roberto Meurer & Sergio Da Silva, 2008. "Optimal control theory for inflation targeting," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(24), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
Moura, Marcelo L. & Lima, Adauto R. S., 2007. "Empirical exchange rate models fit: Evidence from the Brazilian economy," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_85, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]

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