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The Pass-Through of Exchange Rate in the Context of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

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  • Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to CPI inflation is a nonlinear phenomenon for five heavily indebted euro area (EA) countries, namely the so-called GIIPS group (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Using logistic smooth transition models, we explore the existence of nonlinearity with respect to sovereign bond yield spreads (versus German) as an indicator of confidence crisis/macroeconomic instability. Our results provide strong evidence that the extent of ERPT is higher in periods of macroeconomic distress, i.e. when sovereign bond yield spreads exceed some threshold. For all the GIIPS countries, we reveal that the increasing of macroeconomic instability and the loss of confidence during the recent sovereign debt crisis has entailed a higher sensibility of CPI inflation to exchange rate movements.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 47308.

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Date of creation: May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47308

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Keywords: Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Inflation; Sovereign spreads; Smooth Transition Regression;

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  1. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine, 2012. "Non-linearities in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from smooth transition models," MPRA Paper 39258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  3. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  4. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  5. Michael Devereux & Charles Engel & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Exchange-Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0034, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  6. Shintani, Mototsugu & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation: A nonlinear time series analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 512-527.
  7. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  8. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Eiji Fuji & Jeannine Bailliu, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 135, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  11. Reginaldo P. Nogueira, Jr. & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2011. "Does exchange rate pass-through respond to measures of macroeconomic instability?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 167-180, May.
  12. Bussière, Matthieu, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices: the role of non-linearities and asymmetries," Working Paper Series 0822, European Central Bank.
  13. Arnildo da Silva Correa & André Minella, 2010. "Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: A Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 64(3), pages 231-243, September.
  14. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
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