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El temor a las paradas repentinas: enseñanzas de Australia y Chile

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  • Ricardo J. Caballero
  • Kevin Cowan
  • Jonathan Kearns

Abstract

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Las economías latinoamericanas están expuestas a una considerable vulnerabilidad a factores externos. Los desequilibrios internos y las sacudidas en los términos de intercambio a menudo se ven exacerbados por situaciones repentinas de apuro financiero. En este trabajo se analizan maneras de superar la vulnerabilidad a factores externos, recogiendo las enseñanzas de una comparación detallada de la respuesta de Chile y Australia a sacudidas externas recientes, así como los antecedentes de Australia en cuanto a esta experiencia. Se propone que para poder entender las paradas repentinas y los mecanismos que las atenúan, resulta útil resaltar y luego establecer una distinción entre dos dimensiones de la confianza de los inversionistas: la confianza en el país y la confianza en la moneda. Aunque estas dos dimensiones están interrelacionadas, conviene hacer algunas distinciones importantes. La falta de confianza en el país es un problema más de fondo y grave propio de las paradas repentinas. Pero la falta de confianza en la moneda nacional puede ser una fuente de problemas de confianza en el país, así como un motivo de debilidad de la capacidad de un país de manejar las paradas repentinas. Este trabajo trata además los pasos para mejorar la confianza de los inversionistas en el mediano plazo en esas dos dimensiones, así como las políticas necesarias para reducir los efectos del debilitamiento de la confianza en el país y la confianza en la moneda en el corto plazo.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4364.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4364

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