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Are Terms of Trade Rises Inflationary?

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Author Info

  • David Gruen
  • Jacqueline Dwyer

Abstract

This article explores the relationship between the terms of trade and inflation. It shows, both analytically and empirically, that the exchange rate response to a change in the terms of trade is crucial to the inflation outcome. It demonstrates the existence of a 'threshold' exchange rate response. Our best estimate is that a rise in the terms of trade is inflationary if the associated rise in the real exchange rate is less than about 1/3-1/2 of the rise in the terms of trade. However, if appreciation of the real exchange rate is larger than this, the consequent fall in the domestic price of importables is large enough that the terms of trade rise reduces inflation, at least in the short run. Copyright 1996 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research in its journal Australian Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 29 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 211-224

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:29:y:1996:i:2:p:211-224

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References

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  1. Dwyer, Jacqueline, 1992. "The Tradeable Non-tradeable Dichotomy: A Practical Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(59), pages 443-59, December.
  2. L.P. O'Mara & N.A. Wallace & Helen Meshios, 1987. "The Current Account, Monetary Policy, Market Sentiment And The Real Exchange Rate: Some Implications For The Farm Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(3), pages 219-241, December.
  3. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Robert G. Gregory, 1990. "Exchange Rate Policy in Advanced Commodity-Exporting Countries: The Case of Australia and New Zealand," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 83, OECD Publishing.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  5. David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Jacqueline Dwyer & Kenneth Leong, 2001. "Changes in the determinants of inflation in Australia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 1-28 Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Christian Broda, 2002. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Staff Reports 148, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel, 2004. "A Small Macroeconmetric Model Of Trade And Inflation In Ghana," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 696, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  6. Malcolm Edey, 1997. "The Debate on Alternatives for Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  7. Valadkhani, Abbas & Layton, Allan P. & Karunaratne, Neil D., 2005. "Export Price Volatility in Australia: An Application of ARCH and GARCH Models," Economics Working Papers wp05-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  8. Christopher Kent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "Asset-price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9709, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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