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Tariffs, the Real Exchange Rate and the Terms of Trade: On Two Popular Propositions in International Economics

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  • Sebastian Edwards
  • Sweder van Wijnbergen

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the relation between tariff changes, terms of trade changes and the equilibrium real exchange rate. For this purpose we use two models of a small open economy: (1) a three goods version of the Ricardo-Viner model; and (2) a three goods model with full intersectoral factor mobility. We show that, in general, it is not possible to know how the equilibrium real exchange rate will respond to these two disturbances. Moreover, we show that the traditional wisdom that establishes that a tariff hike will always result in a real appreciation, while a terms of trade worsening will generate an equilibrium real depreciation, is incorrect.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2365.

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Date of creation: Jun 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2365

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  1. Neary, J Peter, 1985. "International Factor Mobility, Minimum Wage Rates, and Factor-Price Equalization: A Synthesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 551-70, August.
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Cited by:
  1. J. Love & E. Turner, 2001. "Exports, domestic policy and world markets: a panel study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 615-627.
  2. Chaban, Maxym, 2011. "Home bias, distribution services and determinants of real exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 793-806.
  3. Astorga, Pablo, 2012. "Mean reversion in long-horizon real exchange rates: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1529-1550.
  4. Kenneth W. Clements & Renee Fry, 2006. "Commodity Currencies and Currency Commodities," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  5. Hong-Ghi Min, 2002. "Inequality, the price of nontradables, and the real exchange rate : theory and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2758, The World Bank.
  6. Kam Leong Szeto & Paul Gardiner & Richard Gray & David Hargreaves, 2003. "A Comparison of the NZTM and FPS Models of the New Zealand Economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/25, New Zealand Treasury.
  7. Dungey, Mardi, 2004. "Identifying terms of trade effects in real exchange rate movements: evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-235, April.
  8. Bharat Hazari & Pasquale Sgro, 1996. "Free trade zones, tariffs and the real exchange rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 199-217, July.
  9. Dubas, Justin M., 2009. "The Importance of the Exchange Rate Regime in Limiting Misalignment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1612-1622, October.
  10. Jacqueline Dwyer & Philip Lowe, 1993. "Alternative Concepts of the Real Exchange Rate: A Reconciliation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9309, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  11. Soledad Arellano & Felipe Larraín, 1996. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Gasto Público: Un Modelo Econométrico para Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 33(98), pages 47-76.
  12. Tokarick, Stephen, 2008. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 60-62, October.

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