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Sources of Exchange Rate and Price Level Fluctuations in Two Commodity Exporting Countries: Australia and New Zealand

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  • Fisher, Lance A
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    Abstract

    Dynamic interactions between the exchange rate, domestic price level, and terms of trade of Australia and New Zealand, relative to the United States, are evaluated. Under the restriction that a nominal shock has no long-run effect on the relative terms of trade, real shocks dominate nominal shocks in accounting for fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates. For Australia, real shocks that improve the relative terms of trade have a negligible effect on the domestic price level relative to that of the United States but, for New Zealand, there is a significant permanent increase in the relative domestic price level. Copyright 1996 by The Economic Society of Australia.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

    Volume (Year): 72 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 219 (December)
    Pages: 345-58

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:72:y:1996:i:219:p:345-58

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    1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
    2. Arthur Grimes & Jason Wong, 1992. "The role of the exchange rate in New Zealand monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    3. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-39, August.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. David W.R. Gruen & Jenny Wilkinson, 1991. "Australia’s Real Exchange Rate – Is it Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9108, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Andreas Fischer, 1993. "Inflation Targeting: The New Zealand and Canadian Cases," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, Spring/Su.
    9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Metodey Polasek, 2005. "The commodity-currency view of the Australian dollar: A multivariate cointegration approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 81-99, May.
    2. Kenneth W. Clements & Renee Fry, 2006. "Commodity Currencies and Currency Commodities," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Leu, Shawn Chen-Yu, 2011. "A New Keynesian SVAR model of the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 157-168.
    4. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial asset prices and monetary policy: theory and evidence," BIS Working Papers 47, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Shawn Chen-Yu Leu, 2006. "A New Keynesian Perspective of Monetary Policy in Australia," Working Papers 2006.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    6. Robert Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam, 2002. "A structural var approach to estimating budget balance targets," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 149-175.
    7. Haluk Erlat & Guzin Erlat, 1998. "Permanent and transitory shocks on real and nominal exchange rates in Turkey during the post-1980 period," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(4), pages 379-396, December.
    8. Prof. Neil D. Karunaratne, 2002. "Microeconomic Shocks, Depreciation and Inflation: an Australian Perspective," Discussion Papers Series 298, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
    10. Leu, Shawn, 2004. "A New Keynesian Perspective of Monetary Policy Implementation in Austr alia," Working Papers 1, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    11. Mardi Dungey, 2001. "International Shocks and the Role of Domestic Policy in Australia," CEPR Discussion Papers 443, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    12. Swift, Robyn, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and endogenous terms of trade effects in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 737-745, December.
    13. A.F.M. Kamrul Hassan & Ruhul A. Salim, 2011. "Is there any Link Between Commodity Price and Monetary Policy? Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(3), pages 205-216, December.
    14. Valadkhani, Abbas & Layton, Allan P. & Karunaratne, Neil D., 2005. "Export Price Volatility in Australia: An Application of ARCH and GARCH Models," Economics Working Papers wp05-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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