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A Small Macroeconmetric Model Of Trade And Inflation In Ghana

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  • Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel

    (University of Warwick)

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    Abstract

    This paper contains an empirical investigation of the effects of trade and inflation on a conventional macroeconometric model for Ghana. First, the results corroborate the findings of the Fund that both devaluation and credit restraint are effective in addressing the balance of payment issues facing Ghana. Second, the direction and time pattern of the effects of these two policy experiments are different. Third, further depreciation of the domestic currency is unfavourable to the cause of curbing inflation in Ghana. It rather leads to price increases and is a source of fueling inflation, and could lead to a spiral of inflation through the agitation for higher wages by employees.

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    File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2008/twerp696.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 696.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:696

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    1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    2. Lipumba, Nguyuru & Ndulu, Benno & Horton, Sue & Plourde, Andre, 1988. "A supply constrained macroeconometric model of Tanzania," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 354-376, October.
    3. Dordunoo, Cletus K., 1994. "The structure and policy implications of a macroeconomic model of Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(8), pages 1243-1251, August.
    4. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-54, November.
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    7. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 81-92, January.
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    9. Khan, Mohsin S. & Montiel, Peter & Haque, Nadeem U., 1990. "Adjustment with growth : Relating the analytical approaches of the IMF and the World Bank," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 155-179, January.
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    11. Sowa, Nii Kwaku, 1994. "Fiscal deficits, output growth and inflation targets in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(8), pages 1105-1117, August.
    12. Jere Behrman & James A. Hanson, 1979. "The Use of Econometric Models in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Short-Term Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America, pages 1-38 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sundararajan, V., 1986. "Exchange rate versus credit policy : Analysis with a monetary model of trade and inflation in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-105.
    14. Adam, Christopher S, 1991. "Financial Innovation and the Demand for LM3 in the UK 1975-86," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(4), pages 401-24, November.
    15. Marwah, Kanta, 1969. "An Econometric Model of Colombia: A Prototype Devaluation View," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(2), pages 228-51, April.
    16. Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
    17. Musila, Jacob Wanjala, 2002. "An econometric model of the Malawian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 295-330, March.
    18. J. J. Polak, 1957. "Monetary Analysis of Income Formation and Payments Problems," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-50, November.
    19. Harvey, A C, 1980. "On Comparing Regression Models in Levels and First Differences," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(3), pages 707-20, October.
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