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Asset-price Bubbles and Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Christopher Kent (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Philip Lowe (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Abstract

In this paper we develop a theoretical framework that helps to analyse the role of monetary policy in responding to asset-price bubbles. A large and rapid fall in the nominal price of assets that form the basis of collateral for loans from financial intermediaries can have adverse effects on financial system stability. This asymmetric effect of asset price changes, by reducing the extent of intermediated finance, can reduce output below potential and keep inflation below the central bank's target for extended periods. We demonstrate that there may be circumstances where monetary policy should be tightened in response to an emerging asset-price bubble, in order to burst the bubble before it becomes too large, even though this means that expected inflation is below target in the short run. Such a policy is optimal because it can help to avoid extreme longer-term effects of a larger asset-price bubble and its eventual collapse. In principle, the adverse effects of asset-price bubbles on financial system stability can be moderated through appropriate financial system regulation and supervision. Nevertheless, provided that the effects of asset-price bubbles on the economy are not entirely eliminated, a role for monetary policy may remain.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp9709.

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Date of creation: Dec 1997
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9709

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Related research
Keywords: asset-price bubbles; collateral; monetary policy; inflation targets;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Alchian, Armen A & Klein, Benjamin, 1973. "On a Correct Measure of Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 173-91, Part I Fe. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial asset prices and monetary policy: theory and evidence," BIS Working Papers 47, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. David Gruen & Jacqueline Dwyer, 1995. "Are Terms of Trade Rises Inflationary?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9508, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Philip Lowe & Thomas Rohling, 1993. "Agency Costs, Balance Sheets and the Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9311, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    Other versions:
  8. Alison Tarditi, 1996. "Modelling the Australian Exchange Rate, Long Bond Yield and Inflationary Expectations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9608, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gertler, Mark, 1992. "Financial Capacity and Output Fluctuations in an Economy with Multi-period Financial Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(3), pages 455-72, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2002. "Equitity prices and Monetary Policy: An Overview with an Exploratory Model," NIPE Working Papers 1/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. A. Kontonikas & A. Montagnoli, 2002. "Has Monetary Policy Reacted To Asset Price Movements: Evidence From The Uk," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marianne Gizycki, 2001. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Conditions on Banks’ Risk and Profitability," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-06, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bryan Fitz-Gibbon & Marianne Gizycki, 2001. "A History of Last-resort Lending and Other Support for Troubled Financial Institutions in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-07, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Luci Ellis & Jeremy Lawson & Laura Roberts-Thomson, 2003. "Housing Leverage in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-09, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2005. "Boom or Bubble in the US Real Estate Market?," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 260/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Asset-price Bubbles and the Zero Lower Bound," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-04, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  8. Julio Escobar Potes & José Vicente Romero, 2003. "Metodos de construccion de Índices de precios de vivienda Teoría y experiencia internacional," INVESTIGACIONES SOBRE ECONOMÍA REGIONAL - CREE 003211, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ECONOMÍA REGIONAL. [Downloadable!]
  9. H. Genberg, 2001. "Asset Prices, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 64, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. John Conlon, 2005. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles?," Game Theory and Information 0508007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Christopher Kent & Guy Debelle, 1999. "Trends in the Australian Banking System: Implications for Financial System Stability and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-05, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Carsten Detken & Frank Smets, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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