IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2006-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity Currencies And Currency Commodities

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth W. Clements
  • Renee Fry

Abstract

There is a large literature on the influence of commodity prices on the currencies of countries with a large commodity-based export sector such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada (“commodity currencies”). There is also the idea that because of pricing power, the value of currencies of certain commodity-producing countries affects commodity prices, such as metals, energy, and agricultural-based products (“currency commodities”). This paper merges these two strands of the literature to analyse the simultaneous workings of commodity and currency markets. We implement the approach by using the Kalman filter to jointly estimate the determinants of the prices of these currencies and commodities. Included in the specification is an allowance for spillovers between the two asset types. The methodology is able to determine the extent that currencies are indeed driven by commodities, or that commodities are driven by currencies, over the period 1975 to 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth W. Clements & Renee Fry, 2006. "Commodity Currencies And Currency Commodities," CAMA Working Papers 2006-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2006-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-06/19_clements_fry_2006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Polasek, Matt, 2004. "Commodity Currencies: A Macroeconomic Interpretation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 63-78, March.
    4. Neary, Peter, 1988. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 210-215, March.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
    6. Sjaastad, Larry A. & Scacciavillani, Fabio, 1996. "The price of gold and the exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 879-897, December.
    7. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 657-681, October.
    8. R.G. Gregory, 1976. "Some Implications Of The Growth Of The Mineral Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(2), pages 71-91, August.
    9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rate Economics: 1986," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(385), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Christopher Clague & David Greenaway, 1994. "Incidence Theory, Specific Factors and the Augmented Heckscher‐Ohlin Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 36-43, March.
    11. Clements, Kenneth W. & Fry, Renée, 2008. "Commodity currencies and currency commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 55-73, June.
    12. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, October.
    13. Mahieu, Ronald & Schotman, Peter, 1994. "Neglected common factors in exchange rate volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 279-311, July.
    14. Gruen, David W R & Wilkinson, Jenny, 1994. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate--Is It Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-219, June.
    15. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 415-420, May.
    16. Irwin, Douglas A., 2007. "Tariff Incidence in America's Gilded Age," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 582-607, September.
    17. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-952, July.
    18. David Gruen & Tro Kortian, 1996. "Why Does the Australian Dollar Move so Closely with the Terms of Trade?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9601, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. K.W. Clements & L.A. Sjaastad, 1983. "How Protection Taxes Exporters," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 83-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    20. Larry A. Sjaastad & Meher Manzur, 2003. "Import Protection, Capital Inflows, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 177-203, May.
    21. David W. R. Gruen & Jenny Wilkinson, 1994. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate–Is it Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-219, June.
    22. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
    23. Greenaway, David, 1989. "Commercial Policy and Policy Conflict: An Evaluation of the Incidence of Protection in a Non-industrialized Economy," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(2), pages 125-141, June.
    24. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Robert G. Gregory, 1990. "Exchange Rate Policy in Advanced Commodity-Exporting Countries: The Case of Australia and New Zealand," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 83, OECD Publishing.
    25. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    26. Kwang‐Ho Choi & Tracey A. Cumming, 1986. "Who Pays for Protection in Australia?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(4), pages 490-496, December.
    27. McKenzie, Ian M, 1986. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate during the Twentieth Century," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 69-78, Supplemen.
    28. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 85-118, Suppl. De.
    29. Richard H. Snape, 1977. "Effects Of Mineral Development On The Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(3), pages 147-156, December.
    30. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    31. Snape, Richard H., 1977. "Effects Of Mineral Development On The Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(3), pages 1-10, December.
    32. D. Gruen & T. Kortian, 1998. "Why does the Australian Dollar Move so Closely with the Terms of Trade?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 98-26, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    33. K.W. Clements & J. Freebairn, 1990. "Exchange Rates and Australian Commodity Exports," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 90-09, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    34. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
    35. Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1987. "Tariffs, The Real Exchange Rate and the Terms of Trade: On Two Popular Propositions in International Economics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 458-464, September.
    36. Connolly, Michael & Devereux, John, 1992. "Commercial Policy, the Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rates," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 507-512, July.
    37. Devereux, John & Connolly, Michael, 1996. "Commercial policy, the terms of trade and the real exchange rate revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 81-99, June.
    38. C.L. Gilbert, 1989. "The Response of Primary Commodity Prices to Exchange Rate Changes," Working Papers 208, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    39. Fisher, Lance A, 1996. "Sources of Exchange Rate and Price Level Fluctuations in Two Commodity Exporting Countries: Australia and New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(219), pages 345-358, December.
    40. L.A. Sjaastad, 1989. "Exchange Rate Rules for Small Countries," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 89-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    41. Sjaastad, Larry A., 1998. "On exchange rates, nominal and real," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 407-439, June.
    42. L.A. Sjaastad, 1989. "Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices: the Australian Case," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 89-31, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    43. Dungey, M. H., 1999. "Decomposing exchange rate volatility around the Pacific Rim," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 525-535.
    44. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-784, September.
    45. Geert Bekaert & Steven R. Grenadier, 1999. "Stock and Bond Pricing in an Affine Economy," NBER Working Papers 7346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    47. R.G. Gregory, 1979. "Some Implications Of Growth In The Mineral Sector: Errata," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 23(1), pages 73-73, April.
    48. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    49. Swift, Robyn, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and endogenous terms of trade effects in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 737-745, December.
    50. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1974. "Tariffs and nontraded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-185, May.
    51. Maria-Jesus Asensio & Eva Pardos, 2001. "Trade policy and Spanish specialization, 1978-93," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 163-187.
    52. K.W. Clements, 1990. "The Economic Research Centre," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 90-23, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    53. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1998. "Why PPP Real Exchange Rates Mislead," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 179-207, November.
    54. Choi, Kwang-Ho & Cumming, Tracey A, 1986. "Who Pays for Protection in Australia?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(179), pages 490-496, December.
    55. Lance A. Fisher, 1996. "Sources of Exchange Rate and Price Level Fluctuations in Two Commodity Exporting Countries: Australia and New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(219), pages 345-358, December.
    56. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    57. Greenaway, David & Milner, Chris, 1988. "Intra industry trade and the shifting of protection across sectors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 927-945, April.
    58. Kenneth W. Clements & Meher Manzur, 2001. "Notes on Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 01-25, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    59. Priniti Panday, 2003. "Incidence theory and the shifting of protection across sectors: the South Asian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 125-132.
    60. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2003. "Equity Transmission Mechanisms from Asia to Australia: Interdependence or Contagion?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 28(2), pages 157-182, September.
    61. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Jerome Fahrer & Alexandra Heath, 1993. "Major Influences on the Australian Dollar Exchange Rate," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.),The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    62. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
    63. L.A. Sjaastad & K.W. Clements, 1981. "The Incidence of Protection: Theory and measurement," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 81-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mei-Hsiu Chen & Kenneth W Clements & Grace Gao, 2013. "Three Facts About World Metal Prices," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Magali Dauvin, 2013. "Energy prices and the real exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Swift, Robyn, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and endogenous terms of trade effects in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 737-745, December.
    4. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Shocks And The Australian Economy Since Federation," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 51(2), pages 150-177, July.
    5. Sjaastad, Larry A., 1998. "On exchange rates, nominal and real," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 407-439, June.
    6. Hatzinikolaou, Dimitris & Polasek, Metodey, 2005. "The Commodity-Currency View of the Australian Dollar: A Multivariate Cointegration Approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, May.
    7. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2007. "Are The Real Exchange Rate Indices of Australia Non-Stationary in the Presence of Structural Break?," Economics Working Papers wp07-05, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    8. Rabah Arezki & Kirk Hamilton & Kazim Kazimov, 2011. "Resource Windfalls, Macroeconmic Stability and Growth: The Role of Political Institutions," CESifo Working Paper Series 3678, CESifo.
    9. Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2011. "Investigating the oil price-exchange rate nexus: Evidence from Africa," Working Papers 2011015, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2011.
    10. Chaban, Maxym, 2011. "Home bias, distribution services and determinants of real exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 793-806.
    11. Dungey, Mardi, 2004. "Identifying terms of trade effects in real exchange rate movements: evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-235, April.
    12. Rabah Arezki & Klaus Deininger & Harris Selod, 2012. "What drives the global rush?," NCID Working Papers 02/2012, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    13. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Chen, Yu-chin & Lee, Dongwon, 2018. "Market power, inflation targeting, and commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 122-139.
    15. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry-McKibbin & Verity Linehan, 2014. "Chinese resource demand and the natural resource supplier," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 167-178, January.
    16. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
    17. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
    18. Gonzalez-Hermosillo Gonzalez, B.M., 2008. "Transmission of shocks across global financial markets : The role of contagion and investors' risk appetite," Other publications TiSEM d684f3c7-7ad8-4e93-88cf-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2012. "Modelling the dynamics, structural breaks and the determinants of the real exchange rate of Australia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 343-358.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2006-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.